PC sales have been waning, or at best stagnant for a few years now. Pundits and analysts seem to blame lagging PC sales on the tepid reception of Windows 8 and place an inordinate burden on Microsoft’s flagship OS to drive sales of PCs, or accept responsibility for declining sales. That simplistic view ignores three key factors.
Evolving PC market
The first factor is that the entire tech landscape has shifted—along with how we define a “PC”. When we talk about the “PC market” or declining PC sales, we are referring only to the old-school definition of a “PC”, which means desktops or laptops. “PC” just stands for “personal computer”, though, and the advent of the mobile era has redefined how and where we compute, as well as what devices fit the description of “PC”.
According to data and projections from Gartner, traditional desktop and laptop PCs will continue to decline. However, the total volume of PCs is projected to go up when you factor in what Gartner calls Ultramobile Premium devices—hybrid laptops and 2-in-1 PCs. If you also count other personal computing devices like tablets and smartphones, the PC market as a whole is still projected to grow at a relatively healthy rate.
Gartner projects the number of devices running Windows to increase by about five percent in 2015, but it also projects that the Android and iOS / Mac OS X platforms will grow by more than five percent, which means Windows will own a bigger piece of pie, but maintain a stagnant share of the overall market relative to the fact that the entire pie continues to grow as well.
Define PC
Another factor is which devices are counted as PCs. As noted above, Gartner counts hybrids and tablets separate from traditional PCs but most hybrids, and many tablets actually run the Windows OS. Does it matter that sales of traditional desktops and laptops running Windows is declining as long as sales of hybrids and tablets running Windows continues to make the total volume grow?
The distinction between a “PC” and other devices is sometimes arbitrary as well. I noted in March of last year that IDC uses a dubious barometer to determine whether something is a PC or not. “A Surface Pro 2 is not a “PC” by IDC terms because it is a touch-enabled device with no permanent keyboard and a display less than 16 inches, while the Dell XPS 18 is considered a “PC” simply because the display is larger than IDC’s arbitrary line in the sand. It doesn’t matter that a Surface Pro 2 has the same internal architecture, and runs the same Windows OS that any traditional desktop or laptop PC run.”
No compelling reason
Even if we set aside the fact that new devices have replaced traditional PCs, and that the math behind PC sales figures is impacted by arbitrary decisions about which devices to count, we are still giving Windows too much credit or blame for the state of the PC industry as a whole.
The real issue is that PC hardware finally reached a point of equilibrium. It’s good enough. New processors come out, and faster SSD storage devices, and blazing fast Wi-Fi standards, but none of those things in and of themselves are enough to compel customers to invest money to upgrade or replace the PC they already have as long as it’s still running.
Since the economy imploded in 2008, companies and individuals are much more cautious about frivolous purchases. The mantra “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” applies.
It wouldn’t really matter if Windows 8 was awesome, and it won’t really make a huge difference if Microsoft hits a homerun with Windows 10. If people want the new Windows OS they can just buy it—or download it for free in the case of Windows 10. Unless their existing hardware is simply incapable of running the latest OS there is no compelling reason to buy a new PC.
There was a point in time when it was just sort of expected that customers would buy new PCs more frequently. The hardware technology changed rapidly enough that people felt justified investing in a new PC, and it so happened that the new PC included the latest version of Windows. Now, PC technology seems to have reach some sort of equilibrium, and the improvements that do come along are more incremental—luxuries more than necessities.
The fate of the PC market doesn’t live or die with the Windows OS. The PC market suffers in part because of the evolution of how we do our “personal computing”, in part from economic realities about the cost of buying new hardware, and in part from its own success because PCs run better and last longer than they once did. No matter how bad or how awesome the next version of Windows is, it won’t change those factors, so don’t blame (or praise) Windows when the PC market declines (or goes up).
